Creativity and Imagination - the keys to recovery?

Despite regular claims of a few ‘green shoots’ of recovery, we have a long way to go to get over the worst recession since 1929-31 with one of the largest peace-time budget deficits this country has ever known. The scale of challenge is staggering. Whilst economists and politicians argue about how far and how fast, there is clear consensus on the need to reduce that deficit by cutting public expenditure. Failure to act may well see the UK in a similar position to Greece and Ireland and events there may well be repeated in other European countries, but were there warning signs that might have saved us from our current mess?

How did we get here – was it a failure of imagination?

The financial crisis and resulting recession have many complex causes; surprisingly perhaps, one of those causes appears to have been a failure of imagination – as this exchange in the House of Commons on 18^th November 2010 demonstrates:

Mr Jenkin: “. . . did you ever hear of an organisation called ARAG?”

Mr Cameron: “No.”

Mr Jenkin: “Well, it was an organisation based at Shrivenham Defence Academy. ARAG forecast that there would be a banking collapse and that it would be the largest risk to the security of the nation. Unfortunately, the then Prime Minister, Gordon Brown, excluded it from his national security strategy-he very deliberately did so-and it [ARAG] was abolished to save £1 million. Do you agree that there is a lack of such strategic thinking capacity in government?“

Mr Cameron: “I think that the answer to that is probably yes . . . I accept the general premise that there is not enough strategic thinking in government as a whole.”

(Source: Hansard^[1])

Astonishingly, Gordon Brown had a scenario that suggested that a banking collapse was possible. Leaving aside whether this was a prediction, a forecast or merely a possibility, the fact that such a strategic threat was ignored – worse, buried – defies belief. How little we learn from history; George W Bush also ignored a security scenario for being implausible that was painfully close to the reality of the 9/11 attacks^[2]. 

The way out of the recession: the roles of creativity and imagination

In both of the last two recoveries, it has been the knowledge economy that has been the power house of growth[3]. It is the quality of our creativity that will help to pull us back from the abyss.  Nowhere will this be more crucial than in Government; firstly, to set direction – to steer rather than row – setting out a new vision for the UK and defining the outcomes that must be achieved. Secondly, to ensure that the necessary cuts to the public sector expenditure don’t amount to a wholesale dismantling of vital services. We must not throw the baby out with the bath water.

All the more worrying then that a recent Government report stated: “If we now have a renewed need for National Strategy, we have all but lost the capacity to think strategically. We have simply fallen out of the habit, and have lost the culture of strategy making.”^[4]

To add insult to injury…a senior manager in a major central government department was recently overheard saying that that thinking was now a ‘luxury’, the civil service should just ‘do’ and not think.  Sir Humphrey Appleby would turn in his grave.

The road to recovery: ideas in to action

Clear thinking and the creativity that comes with it is not a luxury, it will be the driving force behind the UK’s recovery. That does not mean ponderous processes or navel gazing. It means rigorous analysis and the use of tried and trusted creative thinking techniques (such as change driver analysis, scenario planning and logical modelling). All of these can be done at pace and make a substantive difference in terms of results achieved.  It also means slaying some sacred cows, taking bold decisions without the normal luxury of time to build consensus amongst the senior civil service.  This will not be easy for an organisation used to working in extremely long timeframes, but this is where private sector experience can make a valuable contribution and a real difference. The government’s aim must be to unlock the creative potential and talent that is latent in the civil service, with outside help if necessary – but critically they must not treat them as an unthinking and subservient machine.

If you would like help in unlocking the potential in your organisation, please contact us here.

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References:

[1] Uncorrected transcript of oral evidence: http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201011/cmselect/cmliaisn/uc608-i/60801.html  (neither witnesses nor members have had the opportunity to correct the record).

[2] Several sources, including a US intelligence report titled the “Sociology and Psychology of Terrorism: Who Becomes a Terrorist and Why”

[3] Will Hutton “Them and Us”, Little, Brown

[4] Who does UK National Strategy: first report of Session 2010-11, reference HC 435

Why is 'strategy' such a dirty word?

I've been working in and around the strategy arena for over five years now and I've noticed an increasingly common trend. Whenever the word 'strategy' is mentioned people tend to switch off. You can tell by the sudden glazing or rolling of the eyes - or a wrinkling of the nose as if some unpleasant smell has wafted over.

Why? Well - unfortunately the term itself has been so over-used as to become virtually meaningless. From job titles that include 'strategic' (a friend tells me he saw an advert from the London Borough of Ealing for a 'Strategic Involvement Officer', whatever that means) to documents that are given the tag 'strategy' or 'strategic' to somehow legitimise them. Like the infamous Iraq dossier, I'm afraid the term seems to be used to 'sex things up' . . .

So - do we need a new term or a new language for that which is 'strategic'? Perhaps - but who's to say that language won't in its turn be misused? I think it would be better to come back to what I believe strategy is all about - answering the 'why' for organisations, setting direction and purpose - not necessarily the detailed 'how'. So strategy is about outcomes, results or goals - the purposive changes that organisations set out to achieve.

So the next time someone glazes over or wrinkles their nose at the 'S' word, try talking instead about results - why are they taking their organisation in a particular direction? What outcomes are they hoping to achieve? And why those outcomes and not something else. In other words - where's the evidence to support their - and I use the term advisedly - Strategy?

UK Spending Cuts - a Damp Squib?

I have to say that I was heartily disappointed by the spending cuts announced last week. Not so much for what was said - though the asymmetric impact on the most vulnerable in our society is in itself disappointing. No; it was actually more for what was left unsaid.

What I see now is effectively 'target savings' that UK departments have to meet. That is - their budgets have been reduced going forward. But there is no detail saying how those savings will be delivered. So my fear is that we will have a non-strategic, 'salami-slicing' approach, where departments cut internal budgets by an arbitrary percentage across the board.

In my view, this is an opportunity missed. Times of pressure and challenge are precisely the times during which a more strategic approach is required, so that service provision can be prioritised around key outcomes - those things that can help make the UK a better place.

As highlighted in the recent report from the Public Administration Select Committee entitled 'Who does UK National Strategy' (click here for a link to the report), I suspect the problem lies in a lack of both appetite and capability in strategic thinking. Sadly, the report concludes that the problem is pervasive amongst both the UK Senior Civil Service and minsters - with some honourable exceptions in both camps. So there is often a lack of clarity about what the key strategic outcomes are for any given department. That makes it pretty difficult to prioritise sensibly.

I fear that the result will be further asymmetry in terms of impact - despite the conspicuous overuse of the word 'fair' during the announcement itself. That is - the most vulnerable citizens, businesses and communities in our society are often the hardest (and therefore the most expensive) to reach. My guess is that, as the cuts translate into operational reality, it will be precisely those services that are reduced or eliminated first.

Hopefully I am wrong and the key Department's of State do indeed have their Baldric-like cunning, strategic plans in place for safe-guarding outcomes and prioritising services. Time will tell.